Health care workforce recovery after the end of the COVID-19 emergency

The COVID-19 pandemic significantly disrupted health care employment, with effects that varied across subsectors. Initial impacts included a 6.9 percent decline in health care jobs between late 2019 and mid-2020. By the third quarter of 2024, however, overall health care employment had nearly returned to projected levels, slightly trailing by just 0.2 percent. In contrast, non–health care sectors experienced a sharper drop (11.4 percent) and a slower recovery (2.9 percent below predictions).

The study, using data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and regression models based on pre-pandemic trends (2016–2019), analyzed health care employment from 2016 to 2024. It focused on key sectors such as physician offices, hospitals, skilled nursing facilities (SNFs) and both office-based and intensive behavioral health services. Physician offices recovered quickly, while SNFs and intensive behavioral health facilities remained below pre-pandemic employment levels. Notably, office-based behavioral health practitioners saw an 84 percent employment increase, driven potentially by growing demand, lower COVID-19 exposure risk and expansion of telehealth services.

By mid-2024, hospitals and SNFs still trailed projected employment levels by 0.7 percent and 0.1 percent respectively, while intensive behavioral health facilities were 0.8 percent below expectations. Office-based behavioral health employment exceeded projections by over 40 percent.

The analysis highlights the resilience of the health care sector, likely aided by stable insurance-based funding. However, limitations include insufficient data on job roles and patient capacity, and the inability to account for demographic or policy-driven structural shifts. Further research is needed to understand the long-term workforce and service delivery implications.