COVID-19 Trends
The information above helps to identify regions that may be experiencing changes in key COVID-19 metrics. Using a series of 7-day moving averages, green, yellow, and red colors identify decreasing, inconclusive, or increasing trends, respectively. A second map provides per capita positive rates (per 100,000 people), placing all regions (county or ISDH district) into 4 equal groups by quartiles, ranging from low to high per capita positive rates. Bar charts to the right of each map below show daily counts for each metric. Trend indicators are designed to highlight regions for further review and are not intended to predict future trends. We are working daily to augment these data, so the numbers above may change as additional data become available.
Trending logic. The trend indicator uses 3-element vector composed of the differences (represented as increase, decrease, or no change) between four consecutive 7-day averages. Each unique vector is mapped to one of three labels: Green – decreasing trend, Red – increasing trend, Yellow – inconclusive trend.
Data Delay. Receipt of clinical data can be delayed up to five days after the clinical event. Because of this delay, initial counts may be lower than actual counts, which may bias the trend indicator toward green. To avoid this bias, the trend indicator color will not reflect the most recent five days.
Early warning indicator. If a notable increase in daily counts is observed in the most recent five days, a red dot is displayed. A “notable increase” is defined as any individual count in the most recent five days that exceeds the average of the 7 days preceding the three days.
Small number rule. When all daily counts over the entire observational period are 3 or less, the trend is labelled green. This is in addition to the above trending logic.
Per Capita Positive Rates. The per capita rate is computed by dividing the number of positive cases in a region (state, county, district) by the total population for that region, then multiplying by 100,000.
Trend Color definitions
Red – Indicates a pattern of increasing daily counts
Yellow – Indicates an inconclusive pattern, neither clearly increasing or decreasing.
Green – Indicates a pattern of decreasing daily counts or low daily counts.
COVID-19 Test Results
Information above includes COVID-19 specific tests that were resulted beginning March 1, 2020. Up to July 25, 2020, these testing numbers represented exclusively the private and public laboratory results that we received and we could match to individuals in the INPC data resource. As noted, these results did not include some lab tests that haven’t been incorporated into the INPC.
As of July 25, 2020, we have augmented our numbers with additional testing data obtained from the Indiana State Department of Health. As we work to fully integrate and match these new data into the INPC, we have added a new row of testing information to the dashboard to clarify the differences between these data.
The first row of testing data, indicated by “Indiana,” represents testing information we are aware of that includes people who live in Indiana. The second row of testing data, indicated by “INPC,” represents what we have been displaying since March, and includes that subset that is already incorporated into the INPC data resource.
Until we completely incorporate all of the new data into the INPC, the testing map, and graphs continue to reflect only those data that are presently in the INPC data resource.
Dates for these tests indicate when results are received, not when testing was performed. Even with the enhancements indicated above, these results may still not yet include some lab tests performed and available across the State. We continue working daily to augment these data, so the numbers above may change as additional data become available.
As always, the official test result figures for the State of Indiana are available on the State’s COVID dashboard, which can be found here.
